Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Making Money Quickly


From the Financial Times: Brazil warns of ‘currency war’

Guido Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister, said on Monday the world was in an “international currency war” ... Mr Mantega, who has made increasingly aggressive comments recently about the need to control Brazil’s currency, said governments around the world were trying to weaken their currencies to promote competitiveness.



"We’re in the midst of an international currency war, a general weakening of currency. This threatens us because it takes away our competitiveness,” he said ...

excerpt with permission
It seems everyone wants to devalue to export more.



As a reminder, Bernanke touched on devaluation in his well known 2002 speech: Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here

Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it's worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt's 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.
Bernanke also said in 2002:

I want to be absolutely clear that I am today neither forecasting nor recommending any attempt by U.S. policymakers to target the international value of the dollar.
Of course a lower dollar only helps U.S. competitiveness with countries not pegged to the dollar - and not intervening in their currency. It sounds like Brazil might be intervening soon.



Yet Another Study Shows Musicians Making More Money

from the well,-look-at-that dept

We've made the argument repeatedly that saying unauthorized file sharing is hurting the music business lacks evidence. Instead, what we've seen, over and over again, is that more money is pouring into the music business, more music is being produced and (most importantly) that more musicians who embrace this new world are doing better than they would have otherwise. Now, we've pointed to research in the UK, Sweden and the US that have all shown aggregate growth for the music business, with some of the numbers suggesting more money going directly to musicians, rather than gatekeepers.



The latest study, highlighted by TorrentFreak takes a similar look at the Norwegian music market to show very similar findings and (of course) that musicians are, indeed, benefiting:



Like the UK and Swedish studies, this study, covering Norway, found that the aggregate amount going to the industry is up slightly (4% in real terms), mostly thanks to live shows more than making up for the decline in music sales (it's important to note that these researchers appear to have modeled their research on both the UK and Swedish studies, and made only slight changes, which they explain (and justify) in the report. The key finding is that musicians appear to be making significantly more these days than in the past:


Total artist revenues have gone from NOK 208 million in 1999 to NOK 545 million in 2009, which is an increase of about 162%. Excluding state subsidization, the income from 1999 to 2009 has increased with NOK 229 million, or 147%....



According to this, Norwegian artists have seen an increase in all four of their income sources during the past eleven years. This goes contrary to the common belief that artists have seen a decline in income because of the digitalization of the industry.



The loss of record sales because of consequences of the digitalization of the industry has not affected the Norwegian artists in the same brutal way as it has the record companies. Artists earn in general 20% or less from record sales, and a decrease in record sales would most likely be compensated by an increase in one or more of the other three income sources.




Now, it's worth pointing out -- as I learned when I attended Nordic Music Week last year -- that the Norwegian music industry is heavily subsidized by the government, which is one of the four revenue streams discussed above. However, that only represents about 30% of artist revenue in 2009. The largest single component -- again similar to what we've seen elsewhere -- is live revenue, which continues to grow. Even if you exclude state subsidies, the report found that Norwegian artists doubled their income in the past 11 years:

Adjusted for inflation, total artist revenue has gone from NOK 255 million in 1999 to NOK 545 million in 2009, an increase of about NOK 290 million or 114%. Excluding state subsidizations, the increase has changed from NOK 192 million to NOK 386 million, which is an increase of NOK 194 million or 101% This goes to show that the artists themselves, as a group, have seen tremendous more growth than the industry as a whole.

And, yes, there are more musicians out there to split the pie, but the growth rate in the industry has increased more quickly than the growth in musicians.

Since the total number of artists in 1999 and 2009 are available to the authors, it is possible to calculate an average income from music for artists in Norway. With 3200 artists in 1999 the average income from music would be about NOK 65 000. With 4100 artists in 2009 the average income from music is about NOK 133 000, creating an increase of NOK 68 000 or 105%. Adjusted for inflation the income has increased with from about NOK 80 000 to NOK 133 000, an increase of NOK 53 000, an increase of 66%.

Overall, the results, like those in Sweden and the UK, seem to clearly debunk the repeated claims from recording industry folks (and some musicians) that artists are somehow suffering under this new setup. Now, there may absolutely be cases where artists who fail to adapt are struggling, and there's no doubt that some labels that failed to adapt are struggling -- but there's increasingly little evidence that the overall music industry or artists as a whole are suffering. All of the evidence seems to suggest that it's not file sharing that's a problem at all. More money is going into the music business. The only problems are from those in the industry too stubborn or too clueless to adapt to capture the money that's flowing in.



27 Comments | Leave a Comment..



Fox <b>News&#39;s</b> Obama &#39;Loves Gangsta Rap&#39; Headline Is Pulled Down

Drop to the end of Jann Wenner's Rolling Stone interview with President Barack Obama, and you'll get to the part where Wenner asks the president to talk about the music he's been listening to lately. Here's Obama's answer, in its ...

Michelle Malkin » Good <b>News</b>: Dukakis Advising Democrats

Good News: Dukakis Advising Democrats. ... New Scapegoat for a Lousy Economy: Fox News is Hogging All the Success. September 28, 2010 04:34 PM by Doug Powers. 53 Comments | 2 Trackbacks ...

Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch | iLounge <b>News</b>

iLounge news discussing the Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch. Find more Apps + Games news from leading independent iPod, iPhone, and iPad site.


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Blood on our hands! by Island-Life


Fox <b>News&#39;s</b> Obama &#39;Loves Gangsta Rap&#39; Headline Is Pulled Down

Drop to the end of Jann Wenner's Rolling Stone interview with President Barack Obama, and you'll get to the part where Wenner asks the president to talk about the music he's been listening to lately. Here's Obama's answer, in its ...

Michelle Malkin » Good <b>News</b>: Dukakis Advising Democrats

Good News: Dukakis Advising Democrats. ... New Scapegoat for a Lousy Economy: Fox News is Hogging All the Success. September 28, 2010 04:34 PM by Doug Powers. 53 Comments | 2 Trackbacks ...

Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch | iLounge <b>News</b>

iLounge news discussing the Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch. Find more Apps + Games news from leading independent iPod, iPhone, and iPad site.


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From the Financial Times: Brazil warns of ‘currency war’

Guido Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister, said on Monday the world was in an “international currency war” ... Mr Mantega, who has made increasingly aggressive comments recently about the need to control Brazil’s currency, said governments around the world were trying to weaken their currencies to promote competitiveness.



"We’re in the midst of an international currency war, a general weakening of currency. This threatens us because it takes away our competitiveness,” he said ...

excerpt with permission
It seems everyone wants to devalue to export more.



As a reminder, Bernanke touched on devaluation in his well known 2002 speech: Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here

Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it's worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt's 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.
Bernanke also said in 2002:

I want to be absolutely clear that I am today neither forecasting nor recommending any attempt by U.S. policymakers to target the international value of the dollar.
Of course a lower dollar only helps U.S. competitiveness with countries not pegged to the dollar - and not intervening in their currency. It sounds like Brazil might be intervening soon.



Yet Another Study Shows Musicians Making More Money

from the well,-look-at-that dept

We've made the argument repeatedly that saying unauthorized file sharing is hurting the music business lacks evidence. Instead, what we've seen, over and over again, is that more money is pouring into the music business, more music is being produced and (most importantly) that more musicians who embrace this new world are doing better than they would have otherwise. Now, we've pointed to research in the UK, Sweden and the US that have all shown aggregate growth for the music business, with some of the numbers suggesting more money going directly to musicians, rather than gatekeepers.



The latest study, highlighted by TorrentFreak takes a similar look at the Norwegian music market to show very similar findings and (of course) that musicians are, indeed, benefiting:



Like the UK and Swedish studies, this study, covering Norway, found that the aggregate amount going to the industry is up slightly (4% in real terms), mostly thanks to live shows more than making up for the decline in music sales (it's important to note that these researchers appear to have modeled their research on both the UK and Swedish studies, and made only slight changes, which they explain (and justify) in the report. The key finding is that musicians appear to be making significantly more these days than in the past:


Total artist revenues have gone from NOK 208 million in 1999 to NOK 545 million in 2009, which is an increase of about 162%. Excluding state subsidization, the income from 1999 to 2009 has increased with NOK 229 million, or 147%....



According to this, Norwegian artists have seen an increase in all four of their income sources during the past eleven years. This goes contrary to the common belief that artists have seen a decline in income because of the digitalization of the industry.



The loss of record sales because of consequences of the digitalization of the industry has not affected the Norwegian artists in the same brutal way as it has the record companies. Artists earn in general 20% or less from record sales, and a decrease in record sales would most likely be compensated by an increase in one or more of the other three income sources.




Now, it's worth pointing out -- as I learned when I attended Nordic Music Week last year -- that the Norwegian music industry is heavily subsidized by the government, which is one of the four revenue streams discussed above. However, that only represents about 30% of artist revenue in 2009. The largest single component -- again similar to what we've seen elsewhere -- is live revenue, which continues to grow. Even if you exclude state subsidies, the report found that Norwegian artists doubled their income in the past 11 years:

Adjusted for inflation, total artist revenue has gone from NOK 255 million in 1999 to NOK 545 million in 2009, an increase of about NOK 290 million or 114%. Excluding state subsidizations, the increase has changed from NOK 192 million to NOK 386 million, which is an increase of NOK 194 million or 101% This goes to show that the artists themselves, as a group, have seen tremendous more growth than the industry as a whole.

And, yes, there are more musicians out there to split the pie, but the growth rate in the industry has increased more quickly than the growth in musicians.

Since the total number of artists in 1999 and 2009 are available to the authors, it is possible to calculate an average income from music for artists in Norway. With 3200 artists in 1999 the average income from music would be about NOK 65 000. With 4100 artists in 2009 the average income from music is about NOK 133 000, creating an increase of NOK 68 000 or 105%. Adjusted for inflation the income has increased with from about NOK 80 000 to NOK 133 000, an increase of NOK 53 000, an increase of 66%.

Overall, the results, like those in Sweden and the UK, seem to clearly debunk the repeated claims from recording industry folks (and some musicians) that artists are somehow suffering under this new setup. Now, there may absolutely be cases where artists who fail to adapt are struggling, and there's no doubt that some labels that failed to adapt are struggling -- but there's increasingly little evidence that the overall music industry or artists as a whole are suffering. All of the evidence seems to suggest that it's not file sharing that's a problem at all. More money is going into the music business. The only problems are from those in the industry too stubborn or too clueless to adapt to capture the money that's flowing in.



27 Comments | Leave a Comment..



bench craft company rip off

Fox <b>News&#39;s</b> Obama &#39;Loves Gangsta Rap&#39; Headline Is Pulled Down

Drop to the end of Jann Wenner's Rolling Stone interview with President Barack Obama, and you'll get to the part where Wenner asks the president to talk about the music he's been listening to lately. Here's Obama's answer, in its ...

Michelle Malkin » Good <b>News</b>: Dukakis Advising Democrats

Good News: Dukakis Advising Democrats. ... New Scapegoat for a Lousy Economy: Fox News is Hogging All the Success. September 28, 2010 04:34 PM by Doug Powers. 53 Comments | 2 Trackbacks ...

Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch | iLounge <b>News</b>

iLounge news discussing the Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch. Find more Apps + Games news from leading independent iPod, iPhone, and iPad site.


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Fox <b>News&#39;s</b> Obama &#39;Loves Gangsta Rap&#39; Headline Is Pulled Down

Drop to the end of Jann Wenner's Rolling Stone interview with President Barack Obama, and you'll get to the part where Wenner asks the president to talk about the music he's been listening to lately. Here's Obama's answer, in its ...

Michelle Malkin » Good <b>News</b>: Dukakis Advising Democrats

Good News: Dukakis Advising Democrats. ... New Scapegoat for a Lousy Economy: Fox News is Hogging All the Success. September 28, 2010 04:34 PM by Doug Powers. 53 Comments | 2 Trackbacks ...

Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch | iLounge <b>News</b>

iLounge news discussing the Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch. Find more Apps + Games news from leading independent iPod, iPhone, and iPad site.


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Fox <b>News&#39;s</b> Obama &#39;Loves Gangsta Rap&#39; Headline Is Pulled Down

Drop to the end of Jann Wenner's Rolling Stone interview with President Barack Obama, and you'll get to the part where Wenner asks the president to talk about the music he's been listening to lately. Here's Obama's answer, in its ...

Michelle Malkin » Good <b>News</b>: Dukakis Advising Democrats

Good News: Dukakis Advising Democrats. ... New Scapegoat for a Lousy Economy: Fox News is Hogging All the Success. September 28, 2010 04:34 PM by Doug Powers. 53 Comments | 2 Trackbacks ...

Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch | iLounge <b>News</b>

iLounge news discussing the Weather HD comes to iPhone, iPod touch. Find more Apps + Games news from leading independent iPod, iPhone, and iPad site.


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